Cryptocurrencies and Forex Analysis February 12th: Markets retracing


EURUSD, Daily timeframe

Bias: Currently retracing (within a Bull trend)

We had a strongly bearish weak that shook the markets, the euro/dollar included. Price dropped by a whopping 200 pips. Traders are currently seeing a retracement from the euro within the context of a bull trend.

Scenario 1:

Price could retest the immediate support at 1.2065. This level could offer a business area. That would be the case if a bullish rejection candle appears on the daily timeframe. Targets are 1.2300 1.2530 and 1.2600.

Scenario 2:

If, however, the retracement is much deeper – price could break and close below 1.2065. Next level to be potentially tested is 1.1900. Similarly, we do need a bullish candle formation on the larger timeframe. See targets above.

Scenario 3:

A bearish scenario as part of a potential reversal could be considered below the support at 1.1500. Below that level sentiment is negative with a long-term perspective.

 

Gold

Bias: Bearish

The precious metal dropped for a second consecutive week. The pips for the previous week were over 200. Price fell below the immediate support at 1320.00. This movement is within a range that we previously mentioned. The question is whether price will recover and continue the bull trend is was trading within or become part of the ranging mode.

Scenario 1:

If gold recovers and closes the day above 1320.00, this could lead to the aforementioned recovery. Immediate target would be located at 1350.00.

Scenario 2:

Price continues to fall. In that case next support level to be tested is the support at 1300.00. From here, we could enter on the long side only if there is a trigger candle. That trigger candle should be no less than 90 to 100 pips bullish daily formation. See targets above.

Scenario 3:

The bearish scenario is where price drops below 1300.00. This would actually be a movement that is part of the range located between the resistance at 1350.00 and the support at 1240.00. So, in that development, traders could potentially capitalize on the probability that price drops to test the lower band at 1240.00.

 

Bitcoin

Bias: Downtrending, 4-Hour timeframe

Despite predictions that price is recovering, we shouldn’t jump the gun before this actually happens. Last week we saw a minor positive price action. For the time being this is what the market has done. We’re very much in a downtrend. The developments that we’re monitoring are:

Scenario 1:

The immediate resistance is located at $9,500 level. If we see price pushing back from that level on the 4-hour timeframe, that would be our signal to go short. Currently, market bias is heavily negative. We’re just looking for a potential entry point.

Scenario 2:

Other levels that price could drop from are the following: the resistance at $ 12,000 and $13,000. So, if price on the 4-hour timeframe reacts from one of those levels and falls by closing two 4-hour bearish formations, we could enter on the short side. Targets are $9,500, $5,500, $5,000 and $4,500.

Scenario 3:

A recover could be seen if price action closes the week above the $13,000 Resistance level. That would signal that bulls are aggressively charging and we could join the movement on the long side. Target is the peak and record high at 19,400.

 

Ethereum

Bias: Downtrending, 4-Hour timeframe

Similarly to Bitcoin, Ether was having a bullish price action last week. This movement is not to be mistaken with a bull trend. It is too early for that. For now, we could say that price is making a correction (until we see signs pointing to a solid recovery if any).

Scenario 1:

Ether could test the immediate resistance at $860 and drop from there. If we see two 4-hour candles pushing back from the level, we could enter on the short side. Targets are located at $600, $550, and $400.

Scenario 2:

Price could test the upper resistance level at $1,000. Again, two 4-hour candles could if formed could serve as our trigger to go short. See targets above.

Scenario 3:

A bullish recovery would take place if Ether closes the day (even the week above the resistance at $1,180. Target would be the record high located at $1,300. We could be in for more bullishness in that scenario. Just make sure you’re aware that the peak at 1,300 could also be respected as a level of resistance.
Wishing you Happy and Successful Trading!

 

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