Market Brief 03 July: Crucial Manufacturing Numbers Today


Today, the New York Stock Exchange will make an early close at 13:00 EST to honor Independence Day. Canada is off, too. All other stock exchanges are working. We could see decrease in liquidity and higher volatility levels.  There are plenty of events on the calendar today. Let’s get straight to it!

Japan

JPY 00:50 GMT+1, Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q2) – analyst predictions of business conditions in manufacturing gravitate towards higher expectations at 15 for the second quarter compared to the previous quarter performance at 12. If the actual reading is better than expectations, this should strengthen the Japanese yen. However, if the result disappoints with a lower reading, this should weaken the JPY.

JPY 00:50 Tankan Large Non-manufacturers Index (Q2)-  business conditions in large businesses except manufacturing companies are expected to rise in the second quarter at a level of 23, compared to the first quarter where performance was at a level of 20. If the actual result surprises with better than expected reading, this should boost the value of the JPY. However, if actual data news shows lower level, this means the economy might be slowing down, and thus the yen should weaken.

Germany

EUR 08:55 a.m. GMT +1, German manufacturing PMI (Jun)- this is one very important manufacturing performance index. In fact, it’s the most important one for the Euro Zone, and consequently the common euro currency. Analysts foresee no change and performance remaining at 59.3, the same as for the period before. However, we have to be prepared for a different actual data coming out. If the actual reading is better than expectations, this should increase the value of the euro, and if the number is strikingly lower than expected, this should drive it down.

United Kingdom

GBP 09:30 a.m. Manufacturing PMI (Jun)-   a very slight decrease is foreseen by analysts at  56.5 vs. 56.7 for the period before. With the volatility and action that we’ve been seeing the past week, this number is definitely worth monitoring.  A higher than expected number would be a bullish signal for the cable, while if the actual number is much lower than expectations, this should hit the currency in a negative way.

Last in the calendar but first among all economies in importance, the United States.

USD 15:00 p.m. GMT+1 ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun) – analysts expect a stronger manufacturing activity at 55.2 levels vs. 54.9. The largest economy in the world has a huge influence on all economies. So, if we witness higher than expected results, this should be a positive sign for the dollar. And, if the reading is lower than expected, this should be a sign of further weakness for the currency.

Wishing you a very successful week, traders!

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