Market Brief 25 September: Germany in Focus
The first business day of the week starts with news from the strongest economy and major driver of the European Union, Germany. It’s the day after the German Federal Election, and markets are likely to react wildly to the election results.
EUR 09:00 a.m. GMT + 1, German Business Expectations (Sept.) – this is a leading indicator looking six months ahead. Business expectations concern future performance of business activity from the perspective of the private sector. This is an important number as it gives a long-term perspective on the German economy. In the month of September, analyst expectations are for performance to remain the same at 107.9, same as last time. If the actual news coming out is better than projections, this should be seen as a bullish sign for the euro. On the other hand, if the result is weaker, this could drive the value of the euro down as well.
EUR 09:00 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Sep) – the index provides a measurement for the current business conditions in Germany and also measures expectations for the next 6 months. The index composition is based on a survey of manufacturers, builders, retailers and wholesalers. In September analyst projections are showing an increase at 116.0 versus 115.9 for the previous month. If the actual result is higher than expectations, this should boost the value of the euro. And, if the result is worse off, this could harm price and weaken the currency.
NZD, 22:45 Trade Balance (MoM) (Aug) – measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services for the month of August. If the number is a positive one, this means that more goods were exported than imported. Thus, a higher than expected number should increase the value of the New Zealand dollar while a lower result than projections should be seen as a bearish sign for the currency.
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