Market Brief May 15th: A day packed with market catalysts
AUD, 02:30 a.m. GMT+1, RBA Meeting Minutes – the minutes contain a detailed description of the specific reasons and economic conditions that brought about the latest interest rate decision. Comments may hint at future decisions to affect monetary policy.
EUR, 07:00 a.m. GMT +1, German GDP (QoQ) (Q1) P –preliminary data is expected related to change in the total production of goods and services by the German economy for the first quarter of 2018. Expectations point to a slowdown of the economy at 0.4% compared to last reading which came out at 0.6%. If the actual reading is better than projected, this should be read as a bullish sign for the euro while a potential lower performance could drive down its price.
The United Kingdom
GBP, 09:30 a.m. GMT + 1, Claimant Count Change (Apr) – the number measures the number of unemployed individuals for the month of April. A rising actual result would suggest more people are out of job and thus should be seen as a negative factor for the cable. A decrease from the expected number would likely boost the value of the currency. Market analyst projections point at a decrease for April at 7.8 K compared to the previous period when claims were higher at 11.6K.
EUR, 10:00 a.m. GMT + 1, German ZEW Economic Sentiment (May) – the event has a major impact on the valuation of the euro. It is a forward -looking indicator (6 months ahead) and data is based on the opinion of 350 investors and market analysts. A level above 0 shows optimism while a drop below that mark is a sign of pessimism for the outlook of the German economy (and the EU as well). Projections suggest a mild increase for the month of May at -8.0 versus last period’s reading at -8.2. A much better reading could strengthen the euro. If, however, the result is even lower, the common euro zone currency could drop even lower.
The United States
USD, 13:30 p.m. GMT, Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) – analysts foresee a drop in sales at the retail level. To be specific the drop for the month of April is seen at 0.4% in comparison to the slightly higher reading at 0.6% from March. Of course, if the number beats expectations and shows an increase, this should be read as a bullish sign for the dollar. Conversely, a much lower result could bring the currency down.
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